To promote the preparation of the financial budget of more scientific and reasonable, This study adopts the revenue and expenditure data from 1950 to 2013, and applying Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test of causation financial statements between income and expenditure, the result is that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between spending and revenue caused by this principle. using the moving average difference sequence auto regression model and the least-squares regression fitting equation, the choice of revenue analysis and forecasting, finding the optimal model and provides more accurate prediction effect for the budget constraints of the prospective shift from preparation to establish multi-year balanced budget to provide reference; future revenue growth slowed projections indicate an active role in the conclusion of the people′s livelihood-oriented public finances construction is taking place.

本研究使用1950—2013年之间财政收支时间序列数据，应用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验对财政决算收入与决算支出之间的因果关系进行分析，得出财政收支之间存在长期均衡关系且收入引起支出，这与我国以收定支的预算编制原则相适应。为推进我国财政收支预算编制更加科学合理，本研究以差分序列的自回归移动平均模型为理论基础，运用最小二乘回归方法拟合方程，选择对财政收入进行分析预测，探索最优模型及较准确的预测效果，为财政预算从约束性转向预期性编制，建立跨年度预算平衡提供参考依据；未来财政收入增速趋缓的预测结论表明我国以民生为导向的公共财政建设正在发生积极作用。

Liu, Q.J and Wang, H.C. (2015) Research on the Forecast and Development of China’s Public Fiscal Revenue based on ARIMA Model. Theoretical Economics Letters, 5, 482-493.