Based on the background that fiscal budget balance deviation increasing year by year and overruns presenting in excess of the normal, the paper uses the granger causality method to detect causal relationship between government and cost overruns, and analyzing the influence of excess changes to overspend with impulse response function Under the VAR model, The results show that overruns is caused by excess. To dig deep the structural factors that cause the budget income deviation , From the Angle of tax in excess, the paper analyzes contribution to fiscal excess of value-added tax, business tax, personal income tax, enterprise income tax, consumption tax through multiple linear regression model. The results show that Business tax and individual income tax has a significant influence on Fiscal budget balance deviation. The focus of correcting the fiscal budget balance deviation is to control the business tax and individual income tax in excess, the government should comprehensively promote the tax reform on personal income tax and VAT instead of business tax to establish and perfect the system of modern finance.

Qingjie Liu, Huachun Wang.Study on the fiscal budget balance deviation and its structural factors.[J].American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 2015, 5: 127-137.